2024 College Football Predictions: College Football Playoff First-Round Picks

The road to the 2024 season’s national championship kicks off with the first round of the College Football Playoff.

As a product of expansion, this initial slate will be played at campus sites. While the hosting school has an option to put on the game at a different location—an available NFL stadium, for example—all four higher-ranked programs chose to play at home.

And, my friends, we are pumped.

The opening-round schedule begins with an in-state showdown at Notre Dame on Friday night, followed by Saturday’s tripleheader at the iconic stadiums of Penn State, Texas and Ohio State.

Ahead, we have a prediction for each matchup, complete with viewing information and the stakes involved.

Stakes: Winner advances to Sugar Bowl vs. No. 2 Georgia

When: Friday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)

This entire matchup, for me, comes down to how well Indiana’s offense plays against Notre Dame’s defense.

During the regular season, IU’s toughest opponents were Michigan and Ohio State. The offense mustered 246 and 151 yards, respectively, in that 20-15 victory against U-M and the 38-15 loss at Ohio State.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, has given up more than 16 points only twice all season.

The bright side for Indiana is one of those moments happened in ND’s most recent game, a 49-35 win at rival USC to close November. But that’s not exactly a trend tilting in IU’s favor.

I’ll trust this sturdy ND defense to contain IU’s offense in a chilly, low-scoring game to start the weekend.

Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Indiana 16

Stakes: Winner advances to Fiesta Bowl vs. No. 3 Boise State

When: Saturday, Dec. 21 at Noon ET (TNT/Max)

If this kickoff happened at 8 p.m. under the lights, I’m taking Penn State and not even thinking twice. That environment—whew, buddy, the Nittany Lions are not losing that one.

However, a noon matchup? I’m pausing.

SMU boasts the third-fewest yards allowed per carry in the country, while Penn State’s rushing attack is third in the category. It seems like an obvious statement to say commanding the advantage up front is critical in this showdown, but that’s the reality.

Beyond that, my main concern for SMU is turnovers. The offense had three giveaways in the early loss to BYU, six in a pretty ridiculous escape at Duke and two more against Clemson in the ACC title game. Penn State’s defense is more reliable than its playmaking unit, so offering up excellent field position would be crushing to SMU’s hopes.

The matchup leans in Penn State’s favor, but at least the environment won’t be as horribly unfriendly as possible for SMU.

Prediction: Penn State 30, SMU 23

Stakes: Winner advances to Peach Bowl vs. No. 4 Arizona State

When: Saturday, Dec. 21 at 4 p.m. ET (TNT/Max)

There’s no better time to shine, Cade Klubnik.

Back in his home state, the once-prized quarterback recruit is preparing for the biggest stage of his Clemson career. And if he can navigate this stingy Texas defense, the lingering concerns about his performance in marquee games would be quieted in a hurry.

That, simply, is a huge ask. Clemson bookended the regular season with SEC foes Georgia and South Carolina. Klubnik was completely ineffective in the 34-3 loss to UGA, throwing for a mere 142 yards on 29 attempts. He had a better game against South Carolina with 342 total yards, but a late interception doomed Clemson in the 17-14 rivalry loss.

Texas, meanwhile, is the stingiest defense in the nation with exactly four yards allowed per snap. The only opponent (Florida) to crack 300 yards on the suffocating unit did so during a 49-17 Longhorns win.

As you can imagine, my prediction falls in line. What a story it would be for Klubnik to propel an upset, though.

Prediction: Texas 34, Clemson 20

Stakes: Winner advances to Rose Bowl vs. No. 1 Oregon

When: Saturday, Dec. 21 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)

Defense, defense, defense. That should be the story of Tennessee’s trip to challenge Ohio State in the Horseshoe.

So, naturally, expect 70 combined points. Kidding…I think.

Both programs have a top-five defense, yielding less than 4.5 yards per snap and 300 yards per game—truly elite numbers. Neither unit has surrendered more than 10 gains of 30-plus yards all season. That context is why, in theory, it’s likely Saturday’s prime-time affair will be a defensive slog.

After seeing OSU implode in the loss to Michigan, I cannot confidently say the Buckeyes would survive that kind of matchup. Their injury-marred offensive line is a concern opposite UT’s pass rush, too.

The decisive factor, though, may be OSU’s receiving corps against Tennessee’s secondary. While the latter has largely been solid, UT’s two losses occurred when the coverage group faltered. That’s clearly a possibility with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka on the Buckeyes.

I expect an ugly Ohio State victory at home, but it’s certainly not something I would like to write in pen.

Prediction: Ohio State 23, Tennessee 20