Cowboys “best still ahead” may not be good enough on Sunday night vs Bucs

Are the Dallas Cowboys bad at… being a bad football team? This will be a real point of discussion going into Sunday night as Dallas tries for a second straight upset win against a NFC South opponent. After beating the Carolina Panthers 30-14 as road underdogs in Week 15, the Cowboys will now set their sights higher on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that leads the division at 8-6. It will be the first of the three remaining games the Cowboys have this season against a winning opponent currently in a playoff spot, with the other two being rematches against division rivals Philadelphia and Washington.

The Cowboys had something to hang their hat on in all three phases of the game against the Panthers, improving their record to 6-8. Although unlikely, the mere possibility that the same team that lost 44-19 to the Saints, 47-9 to the Lions, and 34-10 to the Texans all at home previously this season can finish with nine wins feels like a Christmas miracle. To do so, they would need to win twice at AT&T Stadium, something they have only managed to do once this season, on Thanksgiving against the lowly New York Giants.

It also may be a worst-case scenario depending on which Cowboys fan you ask. Those early season blowouts that seemingly had no end in sight, especially after Dak Prescott was lost for the season in week nine, at least provided hope that a wildly different offseason would be ahead in Dallas. Major coaching changes, approach to free agency and personnel, and front office positioning were all on the table for a team that seriously flirted with having one of the worst records in franchise history at one point.

Cooper Rush has come in and done what Cooper Rush does, find a way to win a few games, and now the Cowboys are slotted to pick in the middle of the first round while also seriously mulling over retaining both Mike McCarthy as head coach and Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator. The saying that the NFL is a week to week league is on display at a nuclear level in Arlington right now, as the Cowboys prepare to play a mere spoiler role against the Buccaneers.

It wasn’t exactly breaking news when owner/GM Jerry Jones told 105.3 The Fan on Tuesday that he’s inspired by the resolve and fight his team has continued to show despite still being the longest of longshots to sneak into the postseason. The Cowboys most recent trips to the playoffs over the previous three seasons may have all been short, with none reaching the coveted NFC Championship Game that Dallas hasn’t appeared in since 1996, but that doesn’t mean they’ve been forgotten. This also means the fact the 2024 team going from one with the expectation of a better playoff outcome to one playing well enough to “run it back” despite really never looking like a playoff team at all can’t be forgotten either. Yet, still riding high off the win against a three win Panthers squad, Jones was ready to add new wrinkles to the idea of McCarthy and Zimmer having a longer future together on the Cowboys coaching staff.

These comments from Jerry came less than a full week after Stephen Jones told reporters they expect another “tight” offseason when it comes to free agent spending. Don’t look now, but figuring out where the Cowboys can actually apply the hard lessons they’ve learned in 2024 and improve for 2025 (other than hoping for better roster health) is getting harder and harder.

With so many injuries on the defensive side of the ball, dating as far back as the start of training camp when pass rusher Sam Williams was lost for the season with an ACL tear, it’s not crazy at all to think the best might really be ahead for this unit. Zimmer has adapted each week to have this defense prepared, aided by Al Harris who was elevated to assistant head coach this past offseason. After a six-sack, four-turnover game against the Panthers, it would be foolish to think anything other than continuing to work with most of the pieces in place on defense is the right idea as opposed to including this unit in the more popular “blow everything up” strategy.

What will raise more eyebrows all throughout America’s Team’s fan base is the idea that to keep Zimmer and possibly Harris in place, McCarthy has to return. Not only that, but the HC still in charge of play-calling for the offense also has this side of the ball poised to still have their best ahead of them too.

Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Sure, the offense next season can expect a lift from having Prescott back as their starting quarterback, but it will virtually be a reset on his first season as the highest paid in the NFL. Either under Jason Garrett previously, and currently under McCarthy, there isn’t much of anything to point to over Prescott’s career so far that says he can elevate a team himself at the level Dallas is preparing for. McCarthy’s offense does not consistently create easy throws or find ways for a receiver not named CeeDee Lamb to get involved. His decision to go to Rico Dowdle as the top option at running back came after an egregious amount of wasted time handing the ball to Ezekiel Elliott, Deuce Vaughn, or Dalvin Cook in a failed committee approach. Jake Ferguson has returned to the lineup at tight end, and while backups Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford were able to make plays over the middle of the field in his absence, establishing the same for Ferguson has been a challenge despite his abilities. In multiple games this season, the Cowboys best “have to have it” call in a big spot besides a throw to Lamb was a route to kick/punt returner KaVontae Turpin.

Nothing the Cowboys have done on offense all season, or can do over the next three weeks, can make all of these concerns going into the offseason disappear. Both Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Brooks having a receiving touchdown against the Panthers was encouraging, but it was still the first time since week 12 the Cowboys had a TD pass to a player other than Lamb or Brandin Cooks. For a team that has all but admitted the best supporting casts around Prescott are behind him, they must realize they do not have a play-caller in place that maximizes what they do have at the skill positions. Not all aspects of the game are weighted equally when it comes to how to win in today’s game, and constantly striving for the best possible efficiency in the passing game matters more than most. So much so, that the Cowboys struggles here are significant enough to dampen the positives that have come from just about every other unit on the team this second half of the season.

The Buccaneers are in great position to prove this to the Cowboys in their last primetime opportunity of the year at home. They have won four straight with Baker Mayfield playing some of the best football of his career, most recently putting up 40 points with a four-touchdown performance against the Chargers. The previous high in points allowed by the Chargers was 30 to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens much earlier this season, but Baker and the Bucs smashed this by completing 81.5% of their passes and converting nine of 15 third down attempts.

The Cowboys will also see a large disparity in red zone efficiency against the Buccaneers, who rank sixth in the NFL in finishing these drives with touchdowns. The Cowboys are the fifth worst team here.

Tampa Bay’s season was hanging in the balance when Chris Godwin was lost for the season at WR. The team lost four straight including getting swept by the Atlanta Falcons who positioned themselves to win the division. The Buccaneers have rallied at the receiver position and found a way to make enough big plays here to completely flip the NFC South, cover for a defense that’s had major struggles at other points this season, and transform into a real dark horse threat in the NFC.

Throughout their ongoing four-game win streak, Mayfield is second only to league MVP favorite Josh Allen in yards per attempt as the only two QBs over nine yards. The Buccaneers may not be the only team proving that having an efficient quarterback is a ticket to success, they’re just the one currently standing in front of the Cowboys.

Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Dallas’ patchwork secondary that’s still found a way to play at a high level going against Tampa Bay’s upstart receiving corps is one of the better chess matches to look forward to in any matchup for Week 16. Even if the Cowboys come away impressed by how they hold up against the Bucs passing game, the more vital takeaway should be how their own offense compares.

If the playoffs started today, Mayfield and the Bucs would be joined by Jared Goff and the Lions, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, Matt Stafford and the Rams, Sam Darnold and the Vikings, Jordan Love and the Packers, and Jayden Daniels and the Commanders in the NFC field. All of these teams also can’t be mentioned as playoff hopefuls without bringing up play-callers or head coaches like Ben Johnson in Detroit, Sean McVay in Los Angeles, Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota, or even former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore now in Philadelphia. This is so much more than just an unproven, recent trend that has a chance to just be another fad that comes and goes in professional football. The Cowboys are on the outside looking in at all of these teams in the playoff picture because they do not have the dynamic connection between play-caller and QB that all of these teams do right now. With the exception of maybe Goff and the Lions, who already handed the Cowboys their worst ever loss of the Jerry Jones era this year, Dak Prescott is being paid to be better than all of the QBs listed above – certainly Darnold and the rookie Daniels. Darnold has kept his team in the playoff picture in the absolute toughest division in football while Daniels has turned around fortunes in Washington to make Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury’s team one the Cowboys will have to grapple with for years to come.

While it isn’t exactly clear what the Eagles and Commanders will still be playing for in Weeks 17 and 18 in their games against the Cowboys to end the season, the Buccaneers are still fighting to stay ahead of the Falcons in their division. There is a decent chance this will be the most inspired team the Cowboys see the rest of the way on Sunday night. Even if it doesn’t manifest in Mayfield and the Bucs offense lighting up the scoreboard again, the same way the Bengals were expected to have their way with the Cowboys defense two weeks ago but didn’t until being gift wrapped the game in the final minute, there is seemingly a lot on the line in the final outcome for both the 8-6 Bucs and 6-8 Cowboys.

The Buccaneers defense that McCarthy will call plays against has allowed the third most passing yards in the league this season. It no longer feels like a question at all if McCarthy is coaching to earn a contract extension in Dallas. It is a reality that must shift the way the last 12 quarters of this mostly lost season are viewed, and starting with seeing how the Cowboys stack up against a red-hot Buccaneers team is as good of a place as any.

For a team tied with the Jets and 49ers with the most primetime games at six this season, the Cowboys. in typical Cowboys fashion. have sure found a way to make all of them interesting despite their record. Sunday Night Football’s catchphrase of “waiting all day for Sunday night” may not fully apply to Cowboys fans that understand their team is not truly in the playoff hunt, but it will be a fascinating game to watch nonetheless with lingering implications that run deep for Dallas.