2024 College Football Playoff odds: Who will emerge from the first round?

We’re down to the final 12 teams in college football. 

The College Football Playoff bracket was revealed on Dec. 9, and the newly-formatted tournament to determine the next champion in college football is set to begin. 

First up, the first round.

Four games will take place, with berths in the quarterfinals on the line. Let’s check out the odds for each game at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Dec. 18, as well as what to know about each game via our FOX Sports college football experts.

No. 10 INDIANA (+225) @ No. 7 NOTRE DAME (-7, -278)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
O/U: 52.5

What to know: “Indiana has shown it can’t be the explosive, high-scoring team that beat 10 out of 12 opponents by double-digits if QB Kurtis Rourke is hurried or sacked. Against Michigan and Ohio State — their most contested win and their only loss, respectively — Rourke was sacked nine times. Against OSU, he threw for just 68 yards. The type of defense he’s likely to see from Notre Dame is similarly stingy and stifling. Notre Dame boasts a top-10 defense and a top-10 rushing attack that looks built to play in the kind of miserable cold that marks South Bend, Indiana, in December. With a QB in Riley Leonard who can run away from pressure and make a play when the pocket collapses, ND has a greater margin for mistakes than IU.” — RJ Young

No. 12 CLEMSON (+360) @ No. 5 TEXAS (-12, -470)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, TNT/MAX
O/U: 51.5

What to know: “One of the biggest differences between last year’s Texas team and this year’s team is the significant improvement of the Longhorns‘ defense under fourth-year coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski. In 2023, Texas ranked 35th in total defense (336.7 yards per game) and 15th in scoring defense (18.9 points per game) before getting gashed by Washington in a high-scoring semifinal. … This year, however, Texas ranks third nationally in total defense (249.5 yards per game) and second in scoring (12.5 points per game), providing plenty of ballast for an offense that was held to 25 points or fewer in four games against conference opponents, including both losses to Georgia. … The Longhorns are also tied with Notre Dame for the most takeaways in college football with 28 (nine fumbles gained, 19 INTs), the program’s highest mark since 2009. The improvement of Kwiatkowski’s defense is why the Longhorns are good enough to win the national title.” — Michael Cohen

Should the Longhorns play Arch Manning in the CFP?

No. 11 SMU (+260) @ No. 6 PENN STATE (-9, -325)
Saturday, noon ET, TNT/MAX
O/U: 54

What to know: “The Nittany Lions simply have a better defense and too dangerous of a running game not to win this game. Not to mention, a home environment that is traditionally one of the most intimidating in college football. This is not to totally discount SMU. Quarterback Kevin Jennings certainly has Penn State’s attention. The dual-threat QB led a miraculous comeback in the ACC Championship Game and the Mustangs nearly knocked off Clemson. He hasn’t consistently faced a defense like Penn State’s though. Defensive end Abdul Carter is one of the best players in the sport, and leads Penn State with 10 sacks, which is also tied for 12th most nationally. Not to mention, the Nittany Lions were able to push Oregon around in the Big Ten title game, which is nothing to sneeze at. Ultimately, Penn State, which has struggled in decisive moments such as these in the past, will get a critical win when it needs it most.” — Laken Litman

No. 9 TENNESSEE (+235) @ No. 8 OHIO STATE (-7.5, -290)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
O/U: 46.5

What to know: “After all the backlash and second-guessing thrown in the direction of Ohio State head coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who co-authored a bizarre game plan in their team’s stunning loss to Michigan last month, it seems unlikely the Buckeyes’ braintrust will again fall victim to such nearsightedness. … Both men readily admitted that they had planned and coached poorly during the Buckeyes’ biggest game of the year, failing to capitalize on a clear talent advantage at wide receiver and draining any semblance of variety from Ohio State’s rushing attack. Surely Day and Kelly will respond with something better when facing a Tennessee defense similarly revered for its potent front seven. The Volunteers rank ninth nationally in tackles for loss with 93 and are tied for 11th in fewest rushes of 20-plus yards allowed with eight. This should be the week that Ohio State encourages quarterback Will Howard to lean on his incredible trio of receivers.” — Michael Cohen

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