Ether (ETH) bulls are facing a do-or-die moment, as the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization that powers the dominant smart-contract-enabled Ethereum blockchain retests key support in the form of its 200-Day Moving Average in the $1,420s.
The ETH price briefly dipped below the 200DMA to hit $1,408, before regaining some composure to trade closer to $1,450 once again. But ETH/USD is still trading down by around 6% on the day, as per TradingView, and by more than 8% in the past 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap.
Cryptocurrency markets have been taking a broad beating on Thursday in wake of Wednesday’s collapse of crypto-friendly bank Silvergate, which has raised concerns that fellow crypto-friendly financial institutions SVB Financial and Signature Bank might be next.
The demise of Silvergate is widely viewed as a blow to crypto adoption, given the bank’s prior efforts to better connect the fiat monetary system and crypto exchanges via its now-shuttered 24/7 wire transfer service between the two.
Ongoing macro headwinds, with the US dollar and US yields having seen significant upside in recent weeks as markets up their Fed tightening bets, have been compounding things. Crypto traders will be nervously watching Friday’s US jobs report and next week’s US CPI report, which could determine whether or not the Fed hikes interest rates by 25 or 50 bps later this month.
The 200DMA is Key to ETH’s Near-term Outlook
The 200DMA is viewed as a key technical level by most traders. A break above or below it can signal, or act as confirmation of a significant shift in the market’s near-term momentum. Meanwhile, if the market finds strong support at the 200DMA, or fails an attempt to break above it, this is also sometimes interpreted as a signal that the market isn’t ready to shift direction just yet, and may revert to its prior trend.
Indeed, the 200DMA has certainly been a key level for Ethereum in recent months. It acted as a ceiling to the price action twice in 2022 (April and November), twice confirming that the Ether bear market was still in play. Meanwhile, Ether’s decisive break above its 200DMA in mid-January was viewed as a signal that the 2022 bear market might well be over, with the cryptocurrency going on to find strong support above it in mid-February.
It would be a significant blow to the market’s near-term sentiment if Ethereum was to lose its grip on its 200DMA. Indeed, a swift test of the mid-December highs in the $1,350s would become overwhelmingly likely, with a break below here possibly opening the door to a run lower towards November’s sub-$1,100 lows.
One saving grace for ETH might come in the form of its 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is close to entering over-sold territory, signaling some consolidation might soon be in order.
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Elroy Kazmierczak