While main contract awards and detailed planning approvals fell in the three months to December, project starts increased slightly on the previous year.
Offices overview
Office work starting on-site totalled £1.191bn during Q4 2022, a 26 per cent decline compared with the preceding quarter but a 6 per cent increase on the previous year. No major projects (£100m or more) commenced on-site, in contrast to both the preceding quarter and the previous year. Underlying project-starts (less than £100m in value) increased 17 per cent against the preceding quarter on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis and stood 35 per cent up on a year ago.
Totalling £1.742bn, office main contract awards decreased 18 per cent against the previous quarter to stand 2 per cent down on 2021 levels. At £830m, major project contract awards experienced a mixed period with the value having decreased by 13 per cent during the quarter to stand 124 per cent higher than the previous year. Underlying contract awards declined 22 per cent against the preceding quarter (SA) and by 35 per cent against the previous year to total £912m.
Office detailed planning approvals, totalling £1.863bn, remained flat against the preceding quarter but stood 26 per cent down against the same period a year ago. Underlying approvals at £1.173bn, experienced a 36 per cent decline against the preceding quarter (SA) to stand 18 per cent down on a year ago. Major project approvals also experienced a decline, falling 19 per cent against the preceding quarter and 37 per cent compared with a year ago.
Size of office projects
Two large value bands experienced the strongest period for project-starts during the quarter to December. The ‘£20m to £50m’ value band was the best performing, with project-starts rising 109 per cent against the previous year to total £311m. The ‘£50m to £100m’ value band also experienced strong growth, with the value of project-starts climbing 68 per cent against the previous year to total £476m.
The ‘£10m to £20m’ value band totalled £122m during the period, experiencing a 61 per cent increase against 2021 levels.
The ‘£5m to £10m’ value band also experienced an increase against 2021 levels (+20 per cent) with project-starts totalling £146m during the quarter.
In contrast, project-starts in the ‘Up to £5m’ value band almost halved (-47 per cent) compared against the previous year to total £136m. No project-starts commenced in the ‘Over £100m’ value band.
Regional
Unsurprisingly, London was the most active area of the UK for office project-starts, accounting for 56 per cent of the total value during Q4 2022. The value of project starts increased by 18 per cent compared with 2021 levels. Office work starting in London totalled £671m, with projects including the £50m 40 Broadway Victoria development in Westminster. Scotland, at £65m was one of a few triple-digit growth areas, with the value of project-starts increasing 135 per cent against the previous year to account for 5 per cent of the total value.
The North West, where the value of starts totalled £169m, experienced the sharpest increase (+555 per cent) of any region against 2021 levels to account for 14 per cent of project-starts. The North West was the second most active region for the sector, with growth almost exclusively due to the £87m development of the No.3 Circle Square development in Manchester. Northern Ireland (+372 per cent), the East Midlands (+146 per cent) and Yorkshire & the Humber (+194 per cent) were the other triple-digit growth areas compared to 2021 levels, totalling £11m, £30m, and £26m, respectively. Elsewhere, the North East experienced the sharpest decrease in the value of project stats (-76 per cent) when compared to 2021 levels to total only £4m.
The North West was the joint-most active area for office planning approvals, accounting for a third of the total value during the period, with the value increasing by 158 per cent compared to the previous year. Office planning approvals totalled £606m, including the £140m Media City Plot C3 commercial development in Salford, Greater Manchester. Yorkshire, accounting for 9 per cent of the sector, experienced triple-digit growth (+268 per cent) compared to the previous year to total £159m. The West Midlands was another triple-digit growth region (+305 per cent), with project starts totalling £159m to account for a 9 per cent share of sector approvals.
Office detailed planning approvals in London experienced a decline of 39 per cent against the previous year to total £488m. Despite the poor performance, London accounted for the second greatest share of sector approvals (26 per cent). The South East was another region to experience a sharp decline in planning approvals against 2021 levels (-86 per cent). Planning approvals in the region totalled £89m during the period, accounting for 5 per cent of the total value.
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